Android is about overtake Palm. Well, that was real hard to predict. The bottom feeders swimming in the scum by the end of 2011 are going to be Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm, while Blackberry, Android, and iPhone will be duking it out for the top three spots. This is also an easy prediction to make.
But the reason for my take on Android’s ascension has nothing to do with the wireless industry or the competitive dynamics of each particular platform. Instead, it has to do with an observation I’ve recently made of my own industry and the local market for my company’s I.T. services.
Our firm shares a total market space of around $10 million with 9 other firms. We’re larger than 7 of those firms (mostly one-man shops), and smaller than 2 (one of whom has 9 employees to our three). When we started our company, we were an Android, not a Windows Mobile. We wanted to advance to a rank in the local market where we felt competitive pressure on things like pricing from beneath us and not above.
Well, we’re at that point now. Pricing pressure always comes from the guy below you. So now I’m watching as some lateral moves occur beneath my firm. The top three players can either go out and win business bid-by-bid or by looking for ways to consolidate the smaller competitors by acquiring books of business or merging. Insofar as Palm and Windows Mobile are those smaller competitors toward the end of 2011, I see them dying on the vine or getting eaten up. Because the momentum has shifted and because the smaller players are unable to effectively pressure based on quality, they’re going to disappear or die trying to woo low-end customers (a la Vonage).
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