We spent so much time getting excited about our disruptive technology that we failed to notice the impracticality of much of what we were excited about. We, meaning those of us responsible for building up VoIP adoption and pushing for networking convergence, spent a ton of time dreaming about what the technology meant that we tended to ignore the extraneous circumstances of the industry–those cold, hard facts which make the dream remain just that– a dream.
Dream – we wanted to replace the PSTN with a global fabric of VoIP endpoints and user-centric services. IP can do it, we all know it. It’s just a matter of when, right?
Reality – The telcos continue to hold on to dated models of monetizing access to the network while forcing third-party services into premiums that cause consumers not to adopt them. Domestic cell phone calling is a great example. If I’m Joe Six Pack, am I actually going to USE Gizmo on my cell phone? Heck no, I already pay for unlimited minutes, SMS messaging, and long distance. To use Gizmo, I’ve got to add unlimited data access, too. So I’m not using it.
Dream – I am reachable at all times using one reachability token. Yeah, and it’s a SIP URI. And my wallet is filled with business cards that have SIP URIs on them instead of phone numbers. And all I have to do to add one of these tokens to my address book is click a link in a text message or an e-mail, and boom, that person is now in my address book and I can also reach them at all times using a single identification token, regardless of where they’re located, which network they’re logged in to for voice, and so on. Sounds great, but is it going to happen?
Reality – The equipment vendors entrenched in enterprise telephony act like snot-nosed brats when people like me (the annoying third-party project manager, oh great) bring up the need for SIP. So Shoretel, Cisco, Avaya, and all the rest, you guys talked a great game 5 years ago when you said “SIP is coming”. But where’s the beef? Really, you don’t support SIP in any compelling manner today, at the end of 2007. You haven’t moved forward. So I’m still handing out 3 phone numbers and an e-mail address every time I need to share my reachability tokens with somebody.
Dream – Ubiquitous wireless access would be free, open to the public, and monetized through content. VoIP for mobile would explode.
Reality – Municipalities refuse to pay for the network. Telcos won’t build the network. Nothing changes.
Dream – Telcos would realize that penalizing third-party traffic on their Internet access was a bad idea, and that they could grow revenue by growing bandwidth rather than penalizing competitors. As a result, VoIP packets would suddenly become more popular than POTS lines.
Reality – Telcos still charge too much for access while adding no value, and get caught on a regular basis penalizing (or blocking outright, how Comcastic is that?) what they view as threatening traffic. The net result–it’s harder to make money if you’re Packet8 than it is to make money selling ice cream to eskimos.
So many people have become disenchanted with the outlook for ubiquitous VoIP that many have begun to give up. Before I give up though, I want to be sure the following things aren’t going to happen:
1 – Municipal WiFi, funded by private content companies, becomes a reality in most metropolitan areas, lest we get backed into paying for WiMax from Ma Bell, which is what’s going to happen.
2 – The telcos begin playing fair with other peoples’ traffic or get out of the way.
3 – Google is successful at moving cell phones with WiFI chipsets that can take advantage of open networks subsidized by content-related revenue (cause Bell sure as sh*t isn’t going to do that).
4 – Apple’s contract with AT&T expires and iChat VoIP becomes popular on the iPhone.
5 -Â Cisco, Avaya, Nortel, Shoretel, and the others wake up and start playing the SIP game instead of just talking about it.
