Signal to Noise

I hate poo-pooing researching, I really do. Even when the research makes the researcher look like a total goofus. Anyhoo.

This is a very encouraging article (Thanks Andy for pointing it out!); almost too encouraging. I choose the word encouraging because fixed mobile and dual-mode devices are the “next big thing” for our whole industry, let alone enterprise VoIP. But the article paints a much prettier picture of dual-mode adoption than what I suspect is reality. Cases in point:

In a survey earlier this year, 23 percent of respondents say they use dual-mode phones now, and that will grow to 30 percent in 2009.

That 23 percent number is way high, especially as an indicator of adoption. First off, I doubt that 23 percent of enterprises own ANY dual-mode endpoint gear. But notice the writer doesn’t say “own”–he says “use”. Even fewer people are actually using dual-mode in any practical manner. Heck, I possess several dual-mode phones and almost never use them in the fashion in intended. Why not? Mainly because SIP endpoint support (still) isn’t on Cisco’s or Avaya’s priority list. Add to that my own anecdotal experiences (I don’t have a single client actually using dual-mode in a meaningful way today) and it all adds up to caca de toro.

In the same group, 45 percent say they use single-mode phones now and that will decrease to 34 percent in two years. As dual-mode phones become more available and affordable, businesses will prefer them to single mode, says Mattheus Machowinski, the Infonetics analyst who wrote the report.

Here’s where Infonetics’ math gets even weirder: only 45% of respondents actually use single-mode devices? If by single-mode they mean VoIP WiFI phones, then the number is way high. If by single-mode they mean cell phones, then the number is way low!  What enterprise isn’t using cell phones? And conversely, how many companies outside the Fortune 1000 are actually using VoIP WiFi? Sure ain’t 45% of them.

Then, if you add the numbers from the sample group up, it gets even more fun: 45% + 23% = only 68%.  Is this to say that only 68% of respondents use phones? What about the other 32%?  Sorry for being such an Andy Rooney on this, but the Techworld article is either a very poor interpretation of the research, or the research is way outside of reality. What do you think?